Climate Change: How Is The Maldives Affected?

The Inevitable Climatic Catastrophe

Over the past 30 years, more than half the greenhouse gases ever generated have been unleashed into the atmosphere. Escalating temperatures will further disrupt weather systems, amplifying the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, from storms and floods to hurricanes, wildfires and prolonged droughts.

The itself Earth will recover, but humanity must create a sustainable future before it’s too late.  Confronting the magnitude of our ecological crisis, we need prompt, collective action to avert global catastrophe.

• Temperatures increase – regions become uninhabitable, crops fail, sparking mass migration.
• Biodiversity collapse – the Amazon, oceanic phytoplankton, insect apocalypse (our food supply) …
• Inequalities – climate change disproportionately affects developing countries and indigenous peoples.
• Global water crisis – demand for fresh water outstrips supply by 40%, as soon as 2030.
• Rising methane emissions – thawing permafrost accelerates environmental degradation.
• Pandemics – human encroachment destroys wilderness, increasing the risk of zoonotic diseases.
• Plastics – endocrine disruptors threaten reproductive health on a global scale.
• Global dimming paradox – high levels of industrial aerosols have been mitigating the sun’s heat.
• Coastal regions – heavily populated regions face inundation by storms, wave surges and floods.
• Sea level rise – low lying island nations, including the Maldives, are particularly at risk.
  – Coral reefs and climate change: wave‐driven flooding of tropical coastlines – Quataert (2015)
  – Atolls will soon be uninhabitable: sea-level rise & wave-driven flooding – Storlazzi et al (2018)
  – Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Pacific Marshall Islands – Storlazzi et al (2017) PDF – U.S. Geological Survey

Useful Long-Term Resources

• Wikipedia: Scientific consensus on climate change – There is a strong scientific consensus that the Earth has been consistently warming since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and the rate of recent warming is largely unprecedented. This warming is mainly caused by the rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1750 from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and land use changes such as deforestation, with a significant supporting role from the other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. This human role in climate change is now considered incontrovertible.
• CarbonBrief Analysis: 100% of global warming is due to humans – and – video version.
  
• Climate change: evidence from the geological record.
• Atlantic sea surface temperature variability over the past 2,900 y
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – UN body for assessing climate change science.
• Key Findings from the 2023 IPCC Report on Climate Change
• Skeptical Science: Explaining climate change and rebutting misinformation since 2007
• National Climate Assessment (USA) – climate change impacts, risks, responses (mandated by congress)
• NOAA NMME Climate Prediction Center – Forecasts: Monthly Climate Anomalies – SST global maps
• NOAA Global Ocean Heat and Salt Content: Seasonal, Yearly, and Pentadal Fields
• NOAA Global Time Series
• EPA: climate change indicators with changes over time, 100+ graphs and maps
• Coral Bleaching Monitoring – interactive global map at ResourceWatch (data by NOAA)
• Daily Updated Global SSTs (climate re-analyzer)
• ECMWF: Global SST Charts 3-month forecasts (Copernicus)
• NOAA blogs – latest on El Niño, etc – and – NATURE latest papers
• Future Indian Ocean warming patterns (pub. Mar 2023)
• Interactive map: Climate TRACE! emissions inventory
• Global Sea Ice – extent anomaly
• Climate Change Indicators – some excellent graphs and visualisations
• Our World In Data – How much CO₂ does the world emit? Which countries emit the most?
• UN: Emissions Gap Report 2023
• IRI Climate Forecasts for 2024
• Dr Sabine Hossenfelder video (and infographic) – How does the greenhouse effect really work? How do we know that global warming is caused by humans? And what predictions have climate models been making?
• Prof Stefan Rahmstorf: Ocean Circulation, Tipping Points – full potsdam lecture on youtube (1h20m)
• Excellent 10 minute video (April 2023) with a follow-up – After three years of La Niña suppressing global warming, ENSO turns towards a potential record-breaking El Niño. What’s happening? What can we expect?
• Video: El Niño 2023 could be a monster! – After three years of La Niña supressing the effects of global warming, the ENSO system is now turning towards El Niño… What’s happening, and what can we expect?
  
• GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS – excellent referenced resource – Coastal Ecosystems: Launched at COP28 by Prof Lenton (Exeter Uni, UK) with 200+ researchers from 90 orgs across 26 countries.
• [PDF] Responses of tropical corals to recurrent climate extremes (2021 paper, Terry Hughes)
  – Thermal thresholds for coral bleaching vary depending on interactions among events.
  – Repeat episodes of extreme temperatures create and later reduce spatial refuges.
  – Shrinking return times between disturbances are eroding ecological resilience.
• Global Temperatures Over Last 24,000 Years ‘Unprecedented’ (Osman et al 2021)
• Global warming in the pipeline (Hansen et al, 2023)
• Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales
• #OceanAcidificationStripes – rapid progression of ocean acidification in the past 40 years.

Papers & Articles (Sept-Dec 2023)

• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology: explanation on YouTube
• NOAA : Assessing the Global Climate (August)
• Copernicus: Record global SST continued in August
• 6 of 9 planetary ‘tipping point’ boundaries now crossed
• NASA confirms summer 2023 was Earth’s hottest on record
• WEF tipping points (Twitter video): “this is not a #ClimateCrisis. This is a #PlanetaryCrisis.”
• Twitter video (Liv Williamson) Florida Corals (21-Sept): Once a true gem, now a graveyard.
• Twitter graph (Terry Hughes): coral reefs have experienced record heat stress.
• Hottest 3 months on record (2016 v 2023 full res graph)

• NOAA: climate adaptation and resilience techniques to save Florida corals
• Wild Ideas to Protect the Great Barrier Reef – floating solar-powered pumps.
• 2023 state of the climate report: uncharted territory – excellent climate roundup – graphs/slides, below.

• Scientists have confirmed 2023 is the hottest year on record, with a month to spare
• Youtube interview with prof Terry Hughes > State of reefs / Is it “game over” ? / Can reefs bounce back?
• Unprecedented mass coral bleaching is expected – 2023 potentially a pair of El Niño years.
• … in the Caribbean, heat stress started 12 weeks early and was sustained for longer.
• Florida’s coral reefs are recovering (27-Nov) – corals are being returned to their offshore nurseries.
• Preserving Florida’s coral after soaring ocean temps – CBS News Miami (video, 06-Dec).
• NOAA (14 Dec) Roundup – November is the sixth record-warm month in a row; global SST set a record high.
• NATURE (6 Dec): Earth nears climate ‘tipping points’
• How 7 scientists feel after the hottest year on record – studying a world facing unprecedented changes 
• Dr Hansen at Columbia, Global Warming Acceleration – Earth’s energy imbalance doubled in 10 years.

NOAA: Restoring ‘Seven Iconic Reefs’ to save Florida’s corals

An unprecedented, decades-long approach to restore reefs in Florida’s National Marine Sanctuary

Launch (Dec 2019): Florida’s $100 million coral propagation project: Official project page

BUT … After mass coral die-off, Florida scientists rethink plans – and – archived version –

Ocean temperatures rose to unprecedented levels in July 2023, fueled by calm, hot weather tied to El Niño and boosted by climate change. 20+ weeks of elevated SSTs (+1°C above average), caused a mass coral die-off.
August 2023: 90% bleaching, with mortality rates from 30% (staghorn) to 45% (elkhorn).
September 2023: no living elkhorn or staghorn was found. Similar damage in the Caribbean.

• (2023.07) ‘Shocking levels of stress.’ A marine heat wave is devastating Florida’s corals
• (2023.09) Devastating photos reveal how an extreme heat wave is wrecking Florida’s coral reef
• (2023.09) NOAA employs climate adaptation and resilience techniques to save Florida corals
• (2023.12) UM researchers work to preserve South Florida’s coral – excellent 3 minute CBS News report

• October 2023 was warmest and wettest on record
• VIDEO (1h12) – SDSN: Leading Climate Scientists Discuss New Research on Global Warming
• What the Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves Means for the Planet
• Can Seawalls Save Us from Rising Seas and Surging Storms
• AMOC: The Weakened Circulation Diminishes Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss – and – video

The Earth’s Climate System is Out of Energy Balance

The relatively steady temperature of the Earth is maintained by a fine balance between incoming radiation from the sun, and outgoing heat radiation to space. The global warming story has always centred on green house gases blocking outgoing heat radiation. But in recent decades, the absorbed incoming solar radiation has been exceeding the outgoing heat radiation to space, and by large amounts. Top-of-atmosphere satellite data matches ocean heat uptake (measured by robotic diving buoys). Many thanks to @Gergyl for the concise summary.

Why does it matter? The net inward radiation flux is not only trending higher, but also accelerating. Just 2 watts per square metre spread over the whole Earth’s surface [510 million km2] is the equivalent of 1 trillion electric radiators operating continuously.

Where does all this energy go? Heating atmosphere, land, evaporating water, melting ice; but mostly heating up oceans (thermal capacity of water is high.) 93% energy has been heating shallow oceans (<300m depth).

So where is this increasing incoming radiation coming from? It is not due to increased solar output (apart from a minor 11-year cycle). The Earth is absorbing more sunlight due to reduced reflection: reduced sea ice and cloud cover, and less atmospheric aerosols (particulates) from fossil fuel burning, including S02 from shipping.

Trend in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (2024) Hodnebrog et al
Adjustment for the reduction in man-made particles (orange line) is necessary to match models with the actual satellite data (black line). Recent air pollution cleanup led to reductions in emissions of tiny particles (aerosols). More heat enters the Earth’s atmosphere from the Sun compared to terrestrial energy escaping to space, leading to cumulative warming of the Earth’s surface. Man-made greenhouse gases have been the major cause of global warming, but air particle pollution has reflected sunlight, masking part of this warming, cooling the planet slightly.

Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go? Schuckmann et al (2023)

The Earth’s climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89%, land: 6%, cryosphere: 4%, atmosphere: 1%).
Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming.